"Wien said that the prediction game wasn't about being right. It was about identifying trends. He knew many of his "surprises" would never come to pass, at least not in the extreme form that he shared. But they sparked dialogue and got people to confront their assumptions. And every now and then, he'd hit something spot-on. In the spirit of Wien's lists, I'm sharing my own predicted "surprises" for the year ahead. Consider them provocations for discussion. And we'll see how it all plays out."
"I'm reminded of an insight Wien shared privately with me, as he ticked through the holdings in his personal investment portfolio. He said that he owned Investment A for Reason A, and Investment B for Reason B. And then he said that he owned Investment C "as a hedge against everything else I believe." He knew that he'd be wrong about some things, and was prepared to be wrong about everything. I've yet to find a better approach for navigating a chaotic world."
Forecasting emphasizes identifying trends and provoking reassessment of assumptions rather than delivering precise outcomes. A prudent investment approach holds distinct positions for different rationales and includes assets specifically as hedges against core beliefs. Massive capital is flowing into AI capabilities concentrated among a narrow group of hyperscalers and chip suppliers, generating large vendor profits but limited immediate incremental value for end users. That concentration and lagging end-user value creation raise the risk that tech-sector equities may underperform in 2026 despite headline AI gains. Provocative scenarios stimulate dialogue and help confront entrenched market assumptions, improving decision-making.
Read at Fast Company
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