Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, predicts that the cost to use AI will decrease tenfold annually, making AI more accessible. He cites the reduction in token costs from GPT-4 to GPT-4o as an example of this trend. Altman emphasizes that increased investment leads to greater intelligence in AI models, reinforcing the notion of super-exponential growth in AI capabilities. He warns that while goods prices might drop, luxury items could become more expensive, highlighting broader economic implications if these trends continue.
The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use.
You can see this in the token cost from GPT-4 in early 2023 to GPT-4o in mid-2024, where the price per token dropped about 150x.
It appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains; the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude.
If these three observations continue to hold true, the impacts on society will be significant.
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