Researchers forecast AI’s economic effects from now to 2030 using surveys of economists, AI experts, and superforecasters across multiple scenarios. One scenario assumes AI can produce Pulitzer-caliber writing and negotiate its own publishing rights. Most experts expect growth in higher-ranking roles such as CEO, administrative manager, senior official, and legislator even under rapid AI. Forecasts for most other white-collar occupations are uncertain. Researchers broadly agree AI is affecting the economy, but the effects are complex and difficult to measure with real numbers. A quiz is presented as a non-scientific way to assess risk using factors researchers associate with vulnerability to AI.
"They surveyed dozens of economists, AI experts, and "superforecasters" about various scenarios, including one in which AI becomes so advanced that it can both write a "Pulitzer-caliber" book and negotiate its own publishing rights."
"In the survey, most experts said that higher-ranking occupations-CEO, administrative manager, senior official, legislator-would continue to grow, even under the "rapid" AI scenario. For most other people working a white-collar job, the forecast was murky."
"Researchers are in broad agreement that AI is doing something to the economy and that whatever it's doing is very complex. Real numbers are hard to come by. That's why WIRED has developed this thoroughly unscientific quiz, based on factors that researchers say might help determine who's at risk."
Read at WIRED
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