OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file a draft IPO prospectus as soon as this week, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising. The company targets an autumn debut, potentially as early as September, with a valuation that could exceed $1 trillion. Prediction market odds shifted quickly in OpenAI’s favor after earlier reporting suggested the filing plans. Kalshi odds moved from 32 percent to 83 percent for OpenAI beating Anthropic, while Polymarket odds for Anthropic fell from 69 percent to 20 percent. The push toward public markets is framed as critical in an AI arms race because the first major listing can attract institutional capital, set valuation benchmarks, and pressure competitors to price against it. OpenAI’s March private funding round raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, with implied value rising further through secondary trading.
"OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file a draft of its IPO prospectus as soon as this week, according to CNBC, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising on the process. The target is an autumn debut, potentially as early as September, at a valuation that could exceed $1 trillion."
"That timeline caught prediction market traders off guard. Before the Wall Street Journal first reported the filing plans, Kalshi traders gave OpenAI just a 32 per cent chance of beating Anthropic to a public listing. That figure has since jumped to 83 per cent. On Polymarket, the odds of Anthropic going public first collapsed from 69 per cent to 20 per cent in a matter of hours."
"“Getting to public markets first is very important, given this arms race going on,” said Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities' global head of technology research. The logic is straightforward: the first major AI company to list captures the bulk of institutional capital allocated to the sector, sets the valuation benchmark, and forces rivals to price against it."
"OpenAI's most recent private funding round, which closed in March, raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation. The round was anchored by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with continued backing from Microsoft. Secondary market trades have since pushed the implied value higher still."
Read at TNW | Finance
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