"And thus began a sycophant game of telephone. Musk, in response to someone praising his own prediction, interpreted that as a sign to double down on it - while at the same time hedging his bets, somehow. "Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI," an emboldened Musk proclaimed. Musk made a similar bet in 2024, predicting AGI would come "within two years.""
"Raising pedantic quibbles like these will make Musk very mad at you, apparently. Because that's what exactly OpenAI research scientist Gabriel Peterssondid. "10 percent chance Elon declares he reached AGI a fourth time," Petersson, who works on the company's video generating AI Sora, joked. "It's no longer first to AGI, it's first to 10 AGIs." Musk fumed in the replies, reaching back to his strange bugbear about "researchers" versus "engineers" that had previously caused him to rage at Gupta. "You call yourself a 'researcher,'"
Elon Musk publicly estimated a roughly 10 percent and rising probability that his chatbot Grok 5 could achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). An xAI employee, Aditya Gupta, endorsed the forecast, continuing a pattern of internal reinforcement. Musk framed the claim both as a probabilistic forecast and as a firm proclamation, saying Grok 5 "will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI." Musk previously predicted AGI "within two years" in 2024 and teased recent chances for Grok 5. The exchange sparked public skepticism and ridicule from other AI researchers and a heated response from Musk about labels like "researcher" versus "engineer."
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