The problem with the AI bubble isn't that it is bursting and bringing the market down-it's that the hype will likely go on for a while and do much more damage in the process than experts are anticipating.
The promise of an AI-driven productivity boom, including artificial general intelligence (AGI) and transformative effects, seems unlikely to reach the levels suggested by tech world hype.
Even grounded predictions of AI's impact on global GDP growth may be too optimistic, with more realistic estimates suggesting a smaller increase in Total Factor Productivity and GDP over the next decade.
Research indicates a more modest effect of AI technologies on U.S. Total Factor Productivity (0.5%-0.6% increase) and GDP (1% increase) within 10 years, highlighting the need for tempered expectations.
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