"The research, led by Erik Brynjolfsson, a top economist and AI thought leader of sorts, analyzed high-frequency payroll records from millions of American workers, generated by ADP, the largest payroll software firm in the U.S. The analysis revealed a 13% relative decline in employment for early-career workers in the most AI-exposed jobs since the widespread adoption of generative AI tools, "even after controlling for firm-level shocks." In contrast, employment for older, more experienced workers in the same occupations has remained stable or grown."
"First, employment disruption is not happening evenly across the workforce. The largest declines are concentrated among young, entry-level workers-those whose skills are most easily replaced by AI systems automating routine, codified tasks. The report says experience and tacit knowledge are becoming crucial buffers against displacement as AI tools excel at replacing book-learning over job-specific, hard-to-codify skills. The report says it's uncovered "substantial" declines in employment, especially for workers aged 22 to 25."
Analysis of high-frequency ADP payroll records covering millions of American workers finds a 13% relative employment decline for early-career workers in the most AI-exposed occupations since broad generative AI adoption, even after controlling for firm-level shocks. Older, more experienced workers in the same occupations have remained stable or grown. Declines concentrate among entry-level workers aged roughly 22–25, whose routine, codified tasks are easier to automate. Experience and tacit knowledge act as buffers against displacement. A set of six empirical facts in the analysis points to substantial early labor-market disruption concentrated on Gen Z in software engineering, customer service, and similar roles.
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