"Andrej Karpathy, one of the most influential figures in modern artificial intelligence and a founding member of OpenAI, sent shockwaves through the tech world over the weekend with a sobering assessment of the industry's progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). In a widely shared interview with podcaster Dwarkesh Patel, a YouTuber with over 1 million followers, Karpathy said he believes the race to build AGI is moving significantly slower than the hype suggests."
"Karpathy, who previously served as Tesla's senior director of AI and helped lead OpenAI in its early years, described his AI timeline as "five to ten times pessimistic" compared to many public predictions. But he rejected the idea his prediction, that it'll take a decade to achieve AGI, is gloomy. "Ten years," he wrote on X after the interview, "should otherwise be a very bullish timeline for AGI." For Silicon Valley, it's a slow projection."
Progress toward artificial general intelligence is moving significantly slower than public hype suggests. Rapid advances in large language models over recent years have not yet closed fundamental gaps required for AGI. Many companies are overstating agentic capabilities, risking credibility and potential harm to the field. Current models remain limited, produce sloppy outputs, and do not exhibit robust general intelligence. Industry expectations and capital investment have surged, generating strong reactions and claims of an AI bubble. A timeline of roughly a decade for AGI remains plausible and could be considered optimistic compared with more aggressive public predictions.
Read at Fortune
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