AI has added $160 billion to 'true GDP' since 2022, Goldman Sachs says. There's just one problem: That's not official | Fortune

"Elsie Peng, Joseph Briggs, and Sarah Dong, from the team of chief economist Jan Hatzius, explain in a Sept. 13 research note the "measured impact" on GDP from AI is an "intermediate impact" from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), so it only counts toward final demand when a final product is sold. For example, a semiconductor only shows up in GDP when, say, a laptop is purchased. This means billions of dollars in AI-enabled economic activity isn't being measured, Peng, Briggs, and Dong argue."

"Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, they calculate, the dramatic surge in revenues attributed to AI infrastructure has boosted "true GDP" by a staggering $160 billion. This figure highlights AI's transformative role as a growth engine-but underscores a confounding gap in official government statistics. According to Goldman Sachs, most of AI's real economic contributions have remained largely invisible in U.S. GDP numbers to date."

"Digging into 'true GDP' To parse out the real domestic economic impact, the Goldman Sachs team adjusted company revenue data by subtracting the effects of inflated prices, foreign sales of equipment produced abroad, and input imports. This resulted in the $160 billion figure, about 0.7% of U.S. GDP since 2022, which translates to roughly 0.3 percentage points of annualized growth."

The Bureau of Economic Analysis treats many AI-related inputs as intermediate goods, so much AI-enabled activity is excluded from measured GDP until a final product is sold. Adjusted company revenue data indicate AI infrastructure revenues have increased true GDP by roughly $160 billion since 2022, about 0.7% of U.S. GDP, while officially counted contributions total about $45 billion. U.S. firms increased AI infrastructure spending by about $400 billion since 2022, with information processing equipment rising at a 39% annualized rate in the first half of 2025. Adjustments removed inflated prices, foreign-produced equipment sales, and imported inputs to estimate domestic impact.

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