"I think if you wanted a tagline for where I think we're at in the cycle, it's sort of like a lower for longer situation... it's just going to be hard to get them into that overdrive or to get some sustained momentum higher. Without a weather problem or unexpected demand surge, markets may look similar into 2026 and even 2027."
"From previous experience... we shouldn't count all our chickens before they hatch because China will turn against you. And they've shown a propensity... to turn against canola for unrelated reasons... because canola is a target. Geopolitical risk remains a constant factor for Canadian growers navigating the months ahead."
"After several strong global production years, stockpiles have rebuilt across wheat, canola, corn, and soybeans. At the same time, growers around the world continue to push for maximum production rather than pulling back acres, creating sustained pressure on prices."
Grain markets are expected to remain rangebound as Prairie farmers prepare for seeding season. Global stockpiles have rebuilt across wheat, canola, corn, and soybeans following several strong production years, while growers worldwide continue pursuing maximum production rather than reducing acres. This creates a "lower for longer" environment where sustained upside momentum will be difficult to achieve without significant weather disruptions or unexpected demand surges. Canola has shown relative resilience with May futures trading in the high $680s, supported by steady crush demand and improved export movement. Wheat and barley exports are also running ahead of last year's pace. However, geopolitical risks, particularly China's unpredictable trade actions targeting canola, remain constant concerns for Canadian growers.
Read at Realagriculture
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