Milk prices are projected to jump dramatically while produce like strawberries will feel like luxury goods, prompting a shift toward processed food. Many consumers remain unaware and distracted by political noise rather than the economic drivers behind grocery sticker shock. Labor shortages from deportations have thinned fields and removed undocumented workers who overwhelmingly comprise the agricultural workforce. New tariffs on staples such as tomatoes, coffee, and orange juice are raising import costs and limiting affordable options. Economists expect upward pressure on prices, with produce potentially rising 50% to 100% by early next year as contracts reset and inventories clear.
Instead, Robertson said, voters are distracted by the political noise of President Donald Trump's policies, while the real drivers of grocery sticker shock- labor shortages, and tariffs-continue to tighten their grip. Deportations have thinned fields and stripped farms of undocumented workers who "overwhelmingly" make up the agricultural workforce. At the same time, new tariffs on staples like tomatoes, coffee, and orange juice are pushing up costs on imports, leaving few affordable alternatives.
"The impacts are unambiguous," Gordon Hanson, an economist and expert on Mexican trade at Harvard Kennedy School, told Fortune. "It's upward pressure on those prices." The White House didn't immediately respond to Fortune 's request for comment. The only question, Hanson added, is how much of the pain farmers, wholesalers, and retailers can absorb before it lands on the grocery aisles and in consumers carts.
The first wave of grocery-price increases will likely hit this winter. Roberson predicted produce prices could rise 50% to 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts kick in. And unlike past decades, when Washington would quietly ease border enforcement to keep fields staffed, today's political environment suggests no such check. "This is like when you see a flood coming, the tsunami is coming in, and the water's gone up two inches," Robertson warned.
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