Heavy wheat stocks and hope on canola - where Prairie grain markets stand ahead of seeding

"On wheat, the story is simple: production keeps climbing. Global output has ballooned to roughly 840 million tonnes, up sharply from the sub-700 million tonne range seen earlier in Squair's career. Large crops in Russia and here at home, combined with abundant corn supplies that can displace feed wheat, have weighed on global stocks-to-use ratios. While world numbers remain burdensome, Canada's balance sheet is comparatively tighter, with exports holding up and carryout projected near five million tonnes."

"That stronger export pace, supported by consistent quality and reliable logistics, is one relative bright spot in an otherwise heavy cereal complex. Durum, however, faces a more complicated outlook. A sizeable carryover - much of it lower quality - is expected to pressure prices early in the crop year, with values in the $8 range considered the starting point. That said, durum's smaller production base means acreage shifts or weather issues could quickly tighten the balance sheet later in the season."

"Canola has regained leadership among Prairie crops. Clarity around U.S. renewable fuel policy and improved trade signals from China have helped underpin prices. Canada produced 21.8 million tonnes this year, with exports initially pencilled in around 6.5 million tonnes . If export demand pushes closer to eight million tonnes, carryout could fall toward more traditional levels near 2.5 to three million tonnes - a threshold that historically supports stronger pricing."

Global grain production has grown substantially, with world wheat and corn supplies creating abundant stocks and thin cereal margins. Global wheat output is near 840 million tonnes, with large crops in Russia and elsewhere reducing stocks-to-use ratios, though Canada's exports remain relatively strong and carryout near five million tonnes. Durum carries significant lower-quality carryover, pushing early-season values toward $8, yet weather or acreage shifts could tighten supplies later. Canola prices are supported by U.S. renewable fuel clarity and improved China trade, with Canadian production at 21.8 million tonnes and potential exports affecting carryout. Red lentils and large greens are recovering from harvest lows.

Read at Realagriculture