Variance is a measure of whether teams are doing what they say they are going to do. A team with high variance is over-committing or under-delivering. A team with low variance is delivering on its plans.
Variance is the difference between story points Committed and story points Done. A rule of thumb is to aim at a variance of no more than 20%.
If a team has low variance - i.e., it is doing what it is committing to do - it is an indicator that many other things are going well. For example: Backlog refinement, estimation, and sprint planning.
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