"In social media posts on Wednesday, he reiterated his warning that states representing nearly one-third of nationwide GDP are already in a recession or at high risk of one. Another third is "treading water," while the rest are still growing but suffering from less momentum. While his latest assessment largely echoes what he said over the summer and earlier this month, Zandi moved the industrial bellwether state of Michigan from the "treading water" list to the "recessionary" one."
"That's as President Donald Trump's tariffs continue to weigh on the automakers that power the state's economy. While General Motors and Ford reported upbeat third-quarter earnings this past week, they still see billions of dollars in tariff-related costs. Meanwhile, supply-chain disruptions-including China's curbs on rare-earth exports that came in retaliation to Trump's trade war-have also hit production. "This state-level picture mirrors the national trend: the U.S. economy is not in recession, but it is struggling to avoid one," Zandi wrote."
The U.S. economy is narrowly avoiding a recession, driven by strong performance in a few large states while many others weaken. States representing nearly one-third of nationwide GDP are in recession or highly vulnerable, another third are treading water, and the remainder are growing with reduced momentum. Michigan has shifted into a recessionary category as tariffs and supply-chain disruptions harm the auto sector. Payroll job growth has nearly stopped, with construction, manufacturing, technology, finance, government, and professional services shedding jobs while healthcare and hospitality continue hiring. Private-sector indicators showed essentially no job growth in September.
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