Mark Baldassare, veteran pollster for the Public Policy Institute of California, believes that Kamala Harris will inspire a historical turnout in California due to both pride as a fellow Californian and the opportunity to elect the first woman as president. He points out that voters ‘want to be part of history,’ which coupled with the desire to support a Democrat against Donald Trump, will galvanize voters.
In his analysis, Baldassare recalls previous voter turnout, noting that in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s candidacy did not yield exceptional voter participation despite her historical significance. He suggests that the upcoming election's dynamics, where Californians could cast their votes for a woman from their state, are different and potentially more motivating.
He contrasts California’s voting ease with suppression tactics in other states, emphasizing that about 22 million Californians are currently registered to vote - a staggering 82% of those eligible. This level of engagement suggests that Harris's candidacy may stir deeper political involvement among Californians, unlike historical turns when voter fury drove turnout.
Baldassare asserts that historical context matters for understanding voter motivation. He references past elections of Nixon and Reagan, highlighting the role of societal issues, such as the Vietnam War, on voter mobilization. Thus, the unique combination of a local candidate like Harris and overwhelming registration could lead to record turnouts.
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