Return-to-office mandates are about to backfire

"In 2025, Amazon, Dell, Apple, Google, IBM, Meta, Salesforce, and dozens more have doubled down on demands for employees to return to the office (RTO) at least three days a week, if not all five. And they're getting exactly what they want. Now, when I say "exactly what they want," you might be expecting me to paint a picture of workers happily returning to their daily commutes, overcrowded highways, cavernous or claustrophobic offices, constant interruptions, and extra expenses, and all of it resulting in massive productivity gains."

"So you have to go with your gut. Or your experience. And what 30 years of gut and experience tells me is that the real question isn't whether people are more productive at home-it's whether companies can afford to lose their best talent over this. Right now, tech workers are desperate. Companies know it. That's why Amazon can demand five days in the office and get compliance instead of resignations."

"But the labor market isn't static; it never was. In fact, it tends to whipsaw back and forth every few years. Remember 2022? Companies were begging people to take jobs. Signing bonuses, remote work, unlimited PTO-whatever it took. Candidates were ghosting interviews. That shoe was totally on the other foot, and it was a Doc Marten."

In 2025, major tech firms including Amazon, Dell, Apple, Google, IBM, Meta, and Salesforce mandate return-to-office policies of three to five days weekly. Compliance is high today but measured productivity gains have not materialized and the science on productivity remains inconclusive. Employer decisions rest on experience and concerns about employee retention rather than clear productivity evidence. Current labor-market weakness produces compliance instead of resignations, but historical swings like the 2022 candidate-driven market show leverage can flip quickly. Companies enforcing RTO risk accelerating departures of their best employees when hiring conditions improve.

Read at Fast Company