COP30 cannot meet the 1.5C goal while military emissions stay uncounted

"Militaries are major global polluters, yet they remain exempt from climate reporting, creating a blind spot that threatens the entire COP30 roadmap. As COP30 negotiations in Belem enter their final stretch, there is hope that countries might finally agree on a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels a breakthrough that is crucial if we are serious about keeping 1.5C alive. Yet even at this pivotal moment, one major highway is still missing from that roadmap that could undermine the progress made in Brazil: the carbon emissions of the military."

"Under the Paris Agreement, governments are not required to report their militaries' emissions, and most simply don't. Recent analysis by the Military Emissions Gap project shows that what little data exists is patchy, inconsistent or missing entirely. This military emissions gap is the gulf between what governments disclose and the true scale of military pollution. The result is stark: militaries remain largely invisible in the Belem negotiations, creating a dangerous blind spot in global climate action."

"The size of that blind spot is staggering. Militaries account for an estimated 5.5 percent of global emissions. This share is set to rise further as defence spending surges while the rest of society decarbonises. If militaries were a country, they would be the fifth-largest emitter on Earth, ahead of Russia with 5 percent. Yet only five countries follow the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) voluntary reporting guidelines for military emissions, and those cover fuel use alone."

Under the Paris Agreement, states are not required to report military emissions, leaving most militaries unreported. The Military Emissions Gap project finds available data patchy, inconsistent, or missing. Militaries are estimated to produce 5.5 percent of global emissions and would rank fifth worldwide if treated as a country. Defence spending growth will likely increase that share as civilian sectors decarbonize. Only five countries follow UNFCCC voluntary military reporting, covering fuel use only. Major sources such as munitions production, disposal, waste management, fugitive emissions, and operations in international waters and airspace are omitted. Armed conflict further widens the gap and undermines climate accountability and phase-out roadmaps.

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