Goldman Sachs economists predict that a Trump win would result in a peak GDP hit of 0.5 percentage points in late 2024, primarily from tariffs.
If Kamala Harris wins with Democrat majorities, new spending and tax credits would slightly boost GDP growth compared to the impact of higher corporate tax rates.
In a divided government scenario with Harris, GDP effects would be small and neutral, highlighting the constrained scope of policy change under divided control.
The Trump campaign challenges forecasters' reliability, urging a reconsideration of past growth predictions following his 2016 election victory.
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