#uk-budget

#uk-budget

"I'm angry, I'm really really angry now," Luke Honeychurch told me. We're standing in his beautiful Cotswolds stone pub, The Hog at Horsley. It is known for its well-kept local ales, from Stroud Brewery and good bar banter. But the landlord now has an alter ego on social media, "The Grumpy Landlord". Mr Honeychurch launched it after he discovered how much his business rates will rise. "At the moment we pay around 100 a month," he explained.

Good times for Britain when the chancellor is saved by the Office for Budget Responsibility being slightly more inept than her at a single convenient moment. Following the accidental early publication of the fiscal watchdog's market-sensitive budget document, chair Richard Hughes has now fallen on his sword. Although it's possible he meant to fall on his feet but just mistimed it. On Monday we discovered that the OBR's website is not securely hosted but was built using WordPress.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has cast doubt on claims Rachel Reeves dropped plans to raise income tax in this week's budget because of rosier forecasts, pointing out she knew about these well before the change of heart. In a move likely to exacerbate tensions with the Treasury, the OBR chair, Richard Hughes, has taken what he acknowledged was the unusual step of writing to the Treasury select committee to explain how its forecast evolved, given the circumstances in this case.

Post-Budget, gilt markets seem reasonably quiet though we have seen a slight tick-up in yields this morning after declining yesterday. Sterling trades at its best in a month against the dollar, though has come back off the overnight highs this morning to $1.3223. EURGBP has seen less of a move as it ran up against the 50-day SMA support, a three-week high for the pound.

Rarely has the buildup to a budget seemed so chaotic. Westminster has been full of stories about confidential briefings and screeching U-turns for weeks. Then came an unprecedented leak by the Office for Budget Responsibility, publishing the full budget online hours before the chancellor stood up at the dispatch box.

Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging. At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging. At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground.

Ask any economist or policy wonk and they'll tell you the buildup to this year's budget has been among the most drawn-out and chaotic they can remember. Treasury insiders are adamant they have maintained the same Labour values throughout and that Reeves first scribbled down her top three priorities the NHS, the cost of living and the public debt as long ago as July.

Sales volumes fell by 1.1%, the first contraction in three months and significantly worse than the flat reading economists had expected. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the drop was partly driven by shoppers intentionally holding off on spending until this month's major discount events. Grant Fitzner, ONS chief economist, said many consumers reported waiting for Black Friday deals, which begin next week.

"Research from Microsoft suggests AI represents a £550 billion opportunity for the UK over the next decade," she said.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show inflation slipping from 3.8% in September, though the fall was not as sharp as economists had forecast. The reduction strengthens hopes that price pressures have peaked and could pave the way for future interest rate cuts, even as inflation remains above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Chancellor Reeves faces a £20-30 billion shortfall in the public finances, and with few easy options, investors are preparing for a new round of austerity which is focused on tax rises rather than spending restraint. Economic indicators are already flashing warning signs: unemployment has risen to a post-pandemic high of 5%, and growth momentum is fading. Against this backdrop, the pound's next move will depend on whether the Budget restores confidence in the UK's fiscal trajectory, or deepens fears of stagnation.