What many in the West perceived as a strategic blunder is increasingly seen in Moscow as a costly but necessary and ultimately successful gamble. As the all-out war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, Russian political elites remain convinced that their leader, Vladimir Putin, did not make a grave error by launching it in February 2022. Instead, they are looking back with a sense of achievement, and they have good reason to believe that the war is ending on their terms, perhaps even soon.
Vladimir Putin is trapped. Despite staggering losses and mounting international pressure, the Russian President shows no sign of ending the war in Ukraine - and experts say he likely can't. The Kremlin's grip on power depends on projecting strength. Analysts warn that any attempt to pull back would be seen as weakness, sparking unrest among elites and ordinary Russians alike. "For Putin, capitulation isn't an option," said a senior European security source. "Backing down would be political suicide."
In the early hours of the night, Russia launched another coordinated strike package against Ukrainian cities, combining drones, cruise missiles, and most significantly, ballistic missiles. It was a deliberate escalation, timed not only for maximum physical damage, but for maximum political effect. These strikes came days before so-called trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, billed optimistically by some as "productive," yet once again exposed as hollow by Moscow's actions.
