Roam Research
fromMail Online
1 day agoScientists reveal what a '30% chance of rain' REALLY means
A percentage chance of rain indicates the probability of precipitation occurring, not its intensity or geographic coverage area.
By comparing how AI models and humans map these words to numerical percentages, we uncovered significant gaps between humans and large language models. While the models do tend to agree with humans on extremes like 'impossible,' they diverge sharply on hedge words like 'maybe.' For example, a model might use the word 'likely' to represent an 80% probability, while a human reader assumes it means closer to 65%.