"Gambling on the weather has become an institution throughout a great part of the United States." This sentiment from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram in 1915 highlights the long-standing tradition of weather betting in American culture.
Citi's upgrade reflects a broader geopolitical reality reshaping global energy markets. The Iran war is accelerating the flight of European and Asian buyers toward secure, long-term U.S. LNG supply contracts.
"A more decentralized energy system, with a growing share of renewables and more market players, is structurally more resilient. Countries that invested in the energy transition are weathering this crisis with less economic damage, as they boost energy security, resilience and competitiveness."
At the start of this year, Pakistan had more imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) than it could use, with demand falling from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025. The government sold excess gas shipments to other countries and shut down domestic gas wells to prevent pipelines from bursting under oversupply.
Trump reiterated that the war will take another two or three weeks, demanded Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and called on other countries to find a way to reopen the vital waterway, through which 20% of the world's oil flows.
The drone strikes and infrastructure damage at Qatar's massive Ras Laffan complex triggered force majeure declarations and slashed roughly 15% to 20% of global supply overnight, leading to a spike in spot prices in Asia and Europe.
January 2026 showed just how violent this relationship can get: Henry Hub spiked to $30.72/MMBtu on January 23 - a near-tenfold surge - before collapsing to $3.13/MMBtu by February 23. Extreme winter heating demand and supply constraints drove that move - exactly what BOIL is built to capture on the upside, and what devastates holders on the way back down.