#long-term-treasuries

#long-term-treasuries

Gold spot prices reached $4,829 per troy ounce at the end of the week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain. COMEX futures closed at $4,879, up 1.48%, driven by Iran's Strait of Hormuz truce and U.S. dollar weakness.

TLT holds U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years, collecting fixed semi-annual coupons that are passed through as monthly distributions.

Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.

"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

PDBC does not own stocks that pay dividends. Instead, it holds commodity futures contracts across energy, metals, and agricultural markets. The fund's primary portfolio holding is a money market instrument, Invesco Premier US Government Money Market, which represents roughly 78% of the fund's assets.

"That's a dangerous thing," he said Thursday during an interview with Bloomberg TV, describing a scenario where demand and prices for Treasuries fall as foreign interest in the market declines.

The Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEARCA:DBC) is up 42% over the past year, and nearly 29% year-to-date. These gains reflect a war that has scrambled global commodity supply chains from crude oil to wheat to fertilizer.

In my view, interest rates are more likely than not going to head lower over the course of 2026 and into 2027. I'm not saying we're due for a pandemic-like selloff, but I do think that weakness in the labor market is likely more protracted than the government data suggest. As such, I do think the makeup of the Federal Reserve, and which way many of its presidents and voting members lean (toward providing support for the labor market over battling inflation) could lead to much faster rate cuts than many think.

If you are using this as a fixed income substitute, you're going to have some really mad clients if and when there is an actual bear market.

The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that one-year inflation expectations rose to 3% in March, with gas price expectations jumping to 9%, the highest since March 2022.

Warsh served on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, making him the youngest person ever appointed to that role at age 35. During the 2008 financial crisis, he was part of Ben Bernanke's inner circle and served as an intermediary with Wall Street. He negotiated survival plans for firms like Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). He later resigned from the Fed due to disagreements over its balance sheet expansion policies.

Many investors regard bonds as the frumpier cousins to stocks. Their prices rarely pop or plummet. They usually deliver a lower return, and-aside from a glamorous cameo in the 1980s thriller Die Hard-they are not part of popular culture in the same way as, say, GameStop or Tesla shares. They are, though, a critical part of any well-managed portfolio, and with the stock market looking particularly frothy, this may be more true than ever.

In addition, if the January consumer price index number, to be posted on Friday, comes in below expectations, there may be no rate cuts until the summer, if then. The best move for growth and income investors seeking solid passive income is to start adding top companies now, as interest rates will rise with no help from the Federal Reserve.