The thinktank warned on Monday that surging gas, electricity and petrol prices had fundamentally altered the outlook for living standards in 2026. Before the Iran war erupted in late February, working-age households were tracking towards modest income growth of 0.9 per cent. That figure has now swung to a projected decline of 0.6 per cent, a turnaround worth £480 per household.
Airlines in Europe are bracing for fuel supply shocks caused by the war in the Middle East. The severity of the impacts on passengers will be determined in the coming days and weeks depending on whether a recently announced ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds.
Petrol stocks averaged 44-47% across the country before the conflict, but fell to between 36-43% in the weeks following February 28, hitting a low of 36% on March 4, 6, and 7.
Canada prepared 50-litre gasoline rationing stamps in 1979 amid the oil crisis, though ultimately did not circulate them. A national rationing system would have allowed essential services like ambulances and farmers to get priority access to gas.
ACI Europe has warned that if maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz fail to recover significantly and stably within three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage could emerge across the European Union.
Jet fuel alone accounts for somewhere between 25 and 35 percent of airlines' costs. The next stop is higher ticket prices. It's already happening, to some degree. Several airlines, including Air Asia and Hong Kong Airlines, have explicitly said they're adding to their usual fuel surcharges.
"We have recently launched the largest ever release of IEA emergency oil stocks - and I am in close contact with key governments around the world, including major energy producers and consumers, as part of our international energy diplomacy."
There's no doubt that what's happening now is an order of magnitude bigger - in terms of potential fallout for oil markets - than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The global benchmark Brent crude is trading around $88 Friday morning, up roughly $16 since military strikes against Iran began.
The International Energy Agency has advised member countries to take emergency measures to curb oil demand, following military strikes on Iran that have triggered significant supply disruptions.
When you work in the operating world, you are in the weeds of your business. For example, at SoFi I knew all the nuances of different types of student loan forbearance programs and at Brex I knew the minutiae of the Mastercard transaction chargeback rules. This contrasts with my experience as a private equity investor where I look at purchasing a business ranging from a chain of laundromats to Ancestry.com within the same month.
