Markets could remain sensitive to the developments in the Middle East. Tensions remain elevated in the region amid continued incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and a failed attempt for a second round of talks this week, undermining prospects for a near-term resolution.
The UK unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 4.9%, driven more by increased economic inactivity, particularly as fewer students sought work.
Britain's tax wedge, which estimates total taxes on labour paid by employees and employers, minus cash benefits received by working households, increased by 2.45 percentage points last year, the most in the OECD.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) held its key interest rates unchanged following the February meeting of the Governing Council, in line with Cebr projections. This marks the fifth consecutive hold, despite a below-target inflation reading of 1.7% in January, the lowest level since 2021. The decision to hold rates also comes despite a recent Euro rally against the dollar, which is expected to add disinflationary pressure through cheaper imports and weigh on growth by making the bloc's exports more expensive.
Weak performance in several service sectors offset gains in retail and wholesale trade, reinforcing concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Japan relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, making it particularly sensitive to disruptions in the region.
The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.
