#deterrence

#deterrence

While the world's attention is fixed on Ukraine another flashpoint could ignite an even greater conflict. Just 112 miles from China's coast lies Taiwan, an island of 23 million people facing 1.4 billion people and the world's largest army. "For Beijing, it's not just territory, it's destiny. For Washington, it's a red line." "Taiwan's military posture is built around a core strategic principle known as the porcupine strategy or asymmetric defence. The goal is not to defeat the numerically superior PLA of China in a conventional war, but to make an invasion so difficult, so costly and so bloody that Beijing is deterred from ever attempting it."

Although there is a perception in the public memory that the cold war outsourced fighting to what we now call the global south, with the two superpowers avoiding direct military clashes, this is in fact not the case. There were several incidents in the early 1950s that involved US aircraft being attacked by Soviet interceptors. Two of these incidents in April 1950 and in June 1952 occurred over the Baltic Sea.

Security guarantees in essence are a deterrent. That deterrent has to be plausible and in order for it to be plausible it has to be strong, Stubb told the Guardian, in an interview in Helsinki before travelling to New York for the UN general assembly. He said the guarantees would only come into effect after a future deal between Ukraine and Russia, but insisted that Russia would have no veto over their format.

Experts believe that any effective strategy to address the incursions must be focused on deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin. And despite earlier promises to impose stricter sanctions on Russia if President Putin does not end the war in Ukraine, President Donald Trump now says that the U.S. will only carry through with those sanctions if NATO member states do the same and end all purchases of Russian oil.

"The United States cannot expect this behavior to change," he said, adding the nation "must send a message this behavior is unacceptable" and should come with a cost to foreign rivals. "I'm committed to marshalling a unified, whole of nation approach on this, working in lockstep with our allies who share our commitment to democratic values, privacy and liberty," Cairncross said.

Fisher, who was a pilot during the Second World War, makes what he describes as a "quite simple" suggestion to reduce the chances of launching a nuclear attack: "Put that needed code number in a little capsule and then implant that capsule right next to the heart of a volunteer." Like the rotation of military personnel who today trade off carrying the "nuclear football"-the briefcase that contains the nuclear launch codes-the person with the implanted capsule would be near the President constantly.

Russia's massive drone attack overnight on six Ukrainian regions, which hit energy and gas transport infrastructure and cut off power to over 100,000 people, is the latest sign that Moscow is nowhere near peace. Coupled with the Kremlin's rejection of meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine, it's clear that President Vladimir Putin is still pursuing his maximalist war goals. That doesn't surprise General (Ret.) Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, who said the U.S. has been "completely deterred" by Putin for the last 11 years, across four presidents, which has built a "sanctuary" for Russia and allowed it to escalate in Ukraine unchecked.

Irregular crossings at Europe's borders have fallen by 30% in the first quarter of the year compared with the same period last year.