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9 hours agoBIZD's 9.3% Yield Hides a Troubling Credit Stress Building Beneath
Public BDCs are trading at a 21% discount to net asset value, creating tension for income investors despite rising distributions.
"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.
The U.S. Treasury bond market has finally responded to the Mideast war, giving its assessment of the energy shock's severity and the war's effect on U.S. fiscal imbalance and inflation.
behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labour market numbers, but almost all the economic data has turned soft since the end of last year. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent.
"The historical evidence reveals a striking pattern: government bonds have repeatedly generated substantial real losses during these extreme episodes. They have even underperformed equities and real estates which are traditionally regarded as risky assets."
The war with Iran was expected to last four or five weeks, but Tehran's reaction—a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil passes—has triggered a surge in energy markets. U.S. President Donald Trump insists the attacks will soon cease, but he is asking allies for help in securing this strategic Middle Eastern passage, while analysts speculate about how long the oil blockade will last.
The country is almost certain to enter the next shock more indebted than we have ever been before, which may significantly hamper our ability to marshal an appropriate response. The U.S. has never experienced an economic shock as indebted as we are today. This situation leaves the U.S. immensely vulnerable.
In my view, interest rates are more likely than not going to head lower over the course of 2026 and into 2027. I'm not saying we're due for a pandemic-like selloff, but I do think that weakness in the labor market is likely more protracted than the government data suggest. As such, I do think the makeup of the Federal Reserve, and which way many of its presidents and voting members lean (toward providing support for the labor market over battling inflation) could lead to much faster rate cuts than many think.
Crude oil breaking above the USD 100 threshold has revived inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher across the curve. However, Friday's labour market report revealed a significant deterioration in employment conditions, with the economy losing 92,000 jobs in February, its largest contraction in several months.
The biggest driver for PCY over the next 12 months is U.S. interest rate trajectory. When the Fed cuts rates, two things benefit emerging market sovereign debt. First, U.S. Treasury yields fall, making PCY's 6.1% yield more attractive to income-focused investors. Second, rate cuts typically weaken the dollar, reducing the debt servicing burden for emerging market governments that borrow in dollars.
I have not touched a paper note for months. I don't even have money to pay for a taxi. Now we walk a lot, for long distances. Palestinians in Gaza use the Israeli currency, the shekel, in their daily transactions, and depend on Israel to supply banks with new banknotes and coins.
Many investors regard bonds as the frumpier cousins to stocks. Their prices rarely pop or plummet. They usually deliver a lower return, and-aside from a glamorous cameo in the 1980s thriller Die Hard-they are not part of popular culture in the same way as, say, GameStop or Tesla shares. They are, though, a critical part of any well-managed portfolio, and with the stock market looking particularly frothy, this may be more true than ever.
As audit committees confront a rapidly expanding risk landscape, their role in corporate governance is being reshaped. Boards have often turned to current and former CFOs as independent directors, particularly for audit committees, because of their ability to translate complex operational and financial realities into effective oversight.For example, this month, J. Michael Hansen, former EVP and CFO of Cintas Corporation, was appointed to the audit committee at Paychex.