#cyclical-sector-exposure

#cyclical-sector-exposure

Shipping costs have increased by more than 10 percent in the past month due to the US-Israel war on Iran. The 60-day waiver for the Jones Act aimed to lower energy costs but has had little impact on oil prices, which continue to rise amid the ongoing conflict.

The U.S. war with Iran and the resulting spike in energy prices has pushed inflation to its highest level in nearly two years, with consumer prices in March up 3.3% from a year ago.

Costco's stock climbed from $844 in December 2025 to over $1,018, reflecting a premium valuation with a trailing P/E of 53x and a forward P/E of 50x.

Instead of trying to predict whiplashing oil prices, consider investing in energy ETFs like the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF and First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure. These ETFs provide exposure to sectors such as pipelines and shipping, independent of oil price fluctuations.

For the 25 major episodes going back to 1950, we typically see a decline in the S&P of around 4%. Now, usually after a month, the S&P tends to recover that entire decline. Then he immediately walked it back. The playbook, he said, does not apply here.

The symbiotic relationship between Diamondback and Viper is highlighted during times like these where Diamondback continues to focus its development on wells where Viper owns high royalty interests. That structural advantage doesn't erode with oil prices.

Over time, markets get ahead of themselves. Excitement over AI, green energy, or whatever the next big thing is tends to push stock valuations far beyond what fundamentals justify. Accordingly, more often than not, a correction can be the catalyst that brings valuation discipline back into the discussion. Think of it as the market taking a deep breath.

The stock market hates inflation. There are not many stocks that are little affected today, if any. However, safe-haven stocks may even rise due to demand. At the top of this list is Altria (NYSE: MO), the cigarette and tobacco king. People who smoke do not stop smoking, even during periods of conflict.

Goldman Sachs Research ranks among the best for its unmatched breadth-covering over 3,000 securities, 45+ economies, and all major markets-and rigorous, data-driven analysis.

As an investor for more than 50 years, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio told Fortune's Kamal Ahmed that, after studying the rises and declines of reserve currencies in major empires over the last 500 years, he sees the same patterns repeating "like a movie." It all boils down to five specific forces that interact-money and debt, domestic politics, world order, nature, and technology, Dalio said. Every issue today sits within the interaction of these forces and their long-term cycles, he said.