What is the current shutdown's expected economic impact? The CBO estimate says the federal spending delay will produce short-term economic losses - largely in the fourth quarter of 2025 - that will mostly be recouped during the first quarter of 2026, assuming the shutdown ends by then. CBO projected how much the shutdown would hamper U.S. economic growth per quarter, adjusted for inflation and multiplied by four, to convert a quarterly figure into an annual one.
CBO is basing its estimates on the agencies' contingency plans and departments and the Office of Personnel Management (OPM). "The number of furloughed employees could vary by the day because some agencies might furlough more employees the longer a shutdown persists and others might recall some initially furloughed employees," Swagel writes. Every agency and department must decide which employees are "excepted" and which ones to furlough. None of them will receive pay during a shutdown.