Others foresee a revolution that might add between US$17 trillion and $26 trillion to annual global economic output and automate up to half of today's jobs by 2045. But even before the full impacts materialize, beliefs about our AI future affect the economy today - steering young people's career choices, guiding government policy and driving vast investment flows into semiconductors and other components of data centres.
Revenue at US companies providing AI infrastructure has risen by $400bn since 2022, which at first glance seems to suggest that AI has been a meaningful driver of economic growth recently. But official numbers tell a different story. AI technology has lifted real US economic activity by about $160 billion since 2022, or 0.7% of GDP. Yet only around $45 billion, or 0.2% of GDP, of AI-spurred growth has been recorded in official statistics. That leaves roughly $115 billion uncounted, according to the analysts.