Practical Epistemology Revisited: The Lab Hypothesis for COVID

"One is that I almost always qualify the claims I make. This is not to weasel (weakening a claim to protect it from criticism) but because I am aware of my epistemic limitations: as Socrates said, I know that I know nothing. People often prefer claims made with certainty and see expressions of doubt as signs of weakness. Another way I annoy people is by presenting alternatives to my views and providing reasons as to why they might be right."

"Because of these, people often ask me "what do you really believe!?!" I then annoy the person more by noting what I think is probably true but also insisting I can always be wrong. This is for the obvious reason that I can always be wrong. I also annoy people by adjusting my views based on credible changes in available evidence. This really annoys people: one is supposed to stick to one view and adjust the evidence to suit the belief."

"Some claims are that it is either naturally occurring or was engineered in the lab. At this point, the best explanation is that the virus is naturally occurring. But since humans do engineer viruses, it is possible the virus was engineered. The obvious challenge is to provide proof and merely asserting it is not enough. So, at this point my annoying position is that the best evidence is that the virus is naturally occurring, but new evidence could change my position."

Philosophical practice includes qualifying claims and acknowledging epistemic limitations, because certainty often exceeds available evidence. Expressing doubt and presenting alternative hypotheses produces clearer, more defensible positions but frequently irritates listeners who prefer certainty. The philosopher states probable beliefs while emphasizing fallibility and updates views when credible new evidence appears. The COVID-19 origin illustrates these habits: distinguish the origin of the virus from the pathway of human infection. Current evidence most strongly supports a natural origin of the virus, while lab engineering remains a possible but unproven alternative. Definitive claims require direct proof rather than assertion.

Read at A Philosopher's Blog