"The most important thing to understand about the 'madman theory' of foreign policy is that it was designed by losers for losers. Nobody executes a madman strategy when he feels that he's winning."
"When China's foreign minister speaks to the world, he uses language such as 'China will be a reliable force for stability' and China 'is providing the greatest certainty in this uncertain world.'"
"A good rule of thumb is that the side that wants a deal more is the side that is losing. The madman strategy is for not-crazy leaders caught in adverse predicaments."
The madman theory, introduced by H. R. Haldeman in Nixon's memoir, involves leaders pretending to be irrational to intimidate adversaries. Nixon used this strategy during the Vietnam War to seek a face-saving exit. Successful powers emphasize predictability, while those feeling weak may resort to bluster. Donald Trump's attempts to use a madman strategy during the Iran conflict failed, as he appeared more desperate for a deal than his opponents. The strategy relies on deception and credibility, with the losing side often being the one that desires a resolution more.
Read at The Atlantic
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