What happens when AI plays war?

China’s actions in the South China Sea, Taiwan’s instability, and U.S. difficulties in the region are framed alongside cyberattacks and missile strikes that threaten military assets and commercial shipping. Supply chains face collapse risk during such crises. Wargames are presented as tools for simulating similar scenarios, focusing less on precise logistics and more on uncertain human behavior during emergencies. Designers emphasize that wargames are not meant to calculate fuel usage for large drone numbers, but to test how other actors might react when given capabilities. With AI rapidly integrated into warfare and strategic planning, wargames must also consider how decision-makers may be guided or replaced by machines.

"“Wargames aren't good for telling you how much fuel 200 drones take,” Andrew Olson, a wargame designer and researcher at CNA, a not-for-profit organization that works with branches of the U.S. military, says. “They're good for understanding: If I gave you 200 drones, how might other players react?”"

"Today, they also need to think about artificial intelligence, which is being integrated into both warfare and strategic planning at a rapid pace. That means wargame designers now face a trickier question than how an enemy might use drones and troops: What happens when the people making decisions in a crisis are guided - or replaced - by machines?"

"Targeted missile strikes destroy military vessels and commercial ships alike, placing supply chains at risk of collapse. This situation isn't real, but it easily could be, which is why analysts have designed wargames that simulate similar geopolitical crises. More than just modeling the logistics of battle, these games can help defense experts explore the most uncertain variable in warfare: how people behave in moments of crisis."

"Wargaming is far from new - in the 19th century, the Prussian Army used Kriegsspiel, a system of maps and color-coded units designed to simulate battlefield decision-making. During the Cold War, when the possibility of nuclear war cast a dark cloud over the future, wargames became a way for defense experts to assess the likely outcome of a nuclear conflict."

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