"Every time a war breaks out in the Middle East, Venezuela receives the sinister privilege of a considerable increase in its oil revenues. The major consuming powers react nervously and, fearing oil shortages and rising prices, rush to buy large quantities of crude for their reserves. The scarcity and increased demand send prices soaring."
"This cycle has repeated itself time and again without Venezuela learning to manage the alternation between periods of abundance and scarcity without trauma. When prices rise, we become intoxicated by the feast of plenty. We believe that oil revenues will continue to grow and we don't prepare for times of scarcity."
"The licensing system prevents oil revenue from reaching the national treasury directly. Its clientelistic distribution ceases to be a mechanism of power and domination and becomes an instrument of control and subordination."
Venezuela's economy has long operated as a rentier state, dependent on oil revenues that fluctuate dramatically with global market conditions. When Middle Eastern conflicts increase oil prices, Venezuela experiences sudden wealth influxes that fuel unsustainable spending patterns. Conversely, price collapses create severe crises. This cyclical pattern has persisted for decades without institutional learning. During abundance, policymakers assume continued growth and fail to build reserves or diversify the economy. During scarcity, they abandon hope rather than prepare for recovery. The current moment represents a critical juncture where the rentier model's exhaustion is evident. Control mechanisms over oil revenues have shifted, with external actors now influencing distribution channels, transforming what was once a domestic power tool into an instrument of external subordination.
Read at english.elpais.com
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