"In pursuit of peace, the Trump administration is pushing Ukraine to bend to maximalist Kremlin demands that Russia has failed to impose militarily, while promising Kyiv "platinum standard" security guarantees to sweeten the deal. This approach is unlikely to succeed - and may prove harmful. The administration would be wise to focus instead on pressing Russia to soften its terms."
"He vows that if Kyiv refuses, his military will take that territory anyways. Putin seems convinced that Russia eventually can grind down Ukraine's undermanned forces. Some U.S. officials have those, apparently believing that pressuring Kyiv into concessions offers the surest path to peace. As President Donald Trump recently, Russia is "much bigger" than Ukraine, and "at some point, size will win." Ukraine is "losing," Trump contended, so it must "accept" Russian demands."
Territorial control in eastern Ukraine is the most difficult issue in current peace negotiations, with U.S. negotiators meeting Ukrainian and Russian officials separately. The Trump administration is urging Ukraine to make concessions to Kremlin demands that Russia has not secured militarily, while offering 'platinum standard' security guarantees as incentive. That strategy risks failure and potential harm; shifting focus toward pressuring Russia to soften demands is recommended. Vladimir Putin demands Ukrainian withdrawal from roughly 23 percent of Donetsk and threatens military seizure if Kyiv refuses. Russian forces would need to capture a 'fortress belt' of towns, one being Pokrovsk, which took over a year to capture.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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