The U.S. Needs to Restore Deterrence Credibility Against Putin

"OPINION - President Donald Trump's 28-point peace plan is a humanitarian attempt to halt the killing and destruction in Ukraine, although Russia's President Vladimir Putin may view the peace plan as an attempt to appease Russia. Since Russia's invasion of Georgia in August 2008, the U.S. and its NATO allies have not been able to deter an aggressive Russian Federation. When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, this was a clear signal,"

"The response from the U.S. and NATO was weak: no military support to Georgia or strong punitive actions against Russia In 2014, Russia seized Crimea, with minimal consequences. The muted response in 2008 to Russia's invasion of Georgia no doubt convinced the Kremlin that the U.S. and NATO would not risk a military confrontation with Russia. Although Russia was suspended from the G8 and the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning Russia's annexation of Crimea,"

"The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021reinforced the Russian view that U.S. and NATO "red lines" were either not clear or not credible. Indeed, Russia viewed the withdrawal as a weakening of U.S. deterrence credibility. On February 4, 2022, just weeks before Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Mr. Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Beijing Winter Olympics. The joint statement from their discussion was clear in stating a "no-limits" partnership and "no forbidden areas of cooperation""

President Donald Trump's 28-point peace plan aims to halt killing and destruction in Ukraine while risking perception of appeasement by Russia. Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia signaled willingness to use force in neighboring states when interests were not respected. The U.S. and NATO provided no military support to Georgia and imposed limited punitive measures. Russia's 2014 seizure of Crimea prompted diplomatic censure but limited military response. The 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan reinforced doubts about Western red-line credibility. A February 2022 Putin-Xi meeting affirmed a no-limits partnership. U.S. intelligence warned of an impending invasion, but deterrence failed.

Read at The Cipher Brief