"From a purely operational perspective, the advantages have been stark. Once skies are open, the war becomes cheaper: plentiful, relatively inexpensive munitions can replace the long-range systems that defended airspace typically demands. The decapitation element reflects a familiar military concept: get inside the enemy's decision loop."
"But a command of tactics does not guarantee strategic clarity. And the deeper risk in this campaign lies in the assumptions that animate it—assumptions about how Iran behaves under pressure, and what pressure produces. For decades, US policy has oscillated between two caricatures of Iran: a messianic theocracy impervious to cost; or a brittle dictatorship one hard shove away from collapse."
"The reality of Iranian governance has always been less theatrical and more enduring. Ideology is central to Iran's self-conception, but it has never functioned independently from the regime's instinct for survival. Under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran repeatedly demonstrated that revolutionary posture could coexist with pragmatic choice."
On 28 February, the US and Israel executed coordinated strikes against Iran using a textbook air war strategy: dismantling air defences, degrading retaliatory capabilities, and targeting senior commanders. The campaign achieved tactical advantages by opening contested skies, reducing operational costs, and attempting to disrupt Iranian decision-making through leadership decapitation. However, the strategic foundation rests on assumptions about Iranian behavior that may be flawed. Historical US policy has oscillated between viewing Iran as either an immovable ideological state or a fragile dictatorship vulnerable to collapse. Iranian governance under Ayatollah Khamenei demonstrates a more nuanced reality, where revolutionary ideology coexists with pragmatic survival calculations, as evidenced by Iran's willingness to negotiate the 2015 nuclear agreement despite anti-American rhetoric.
#us-iran-military-conflict #air-warfare-strategy #iranian-governance-and-decision-making #strategic-assumptions-and-policy #leadership-decapitation-tactics
Read at www.theguardian.com
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