The Mali crisis could have a dangerous spillover effect

Rebel groups have imposed a fuel blockade on Bamako for nearly nine months, and the conflict escalated in late April with a coordinated attack on the Malian army and Russian allies. Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and Tuareg separatist members killed Mali’s Defence Minister, seized military camps, recaptured Kidal, and tightened the blockade. The offensive is part of repeated rebellions in Azawad, a Tuareg-majority area in northern Mali. The crisis is worsened by the weakening of the Malian state after the 2021 coup and foreign intervention. Without serious efforts to address underlying grievances, instability could spill across the Sahel. Past Tuareg-aligned rebellions were partially contained after French operations and later negotiations, including the 2015 Algiers Accords with decentralisation provisions for Azawad.

"The Sahel region could see a major surge of instability unless urgent action is taken to seek a diplomatic solution. It has been almost nine months since rebel groups imposed a fuel blockade on Mali's capital Bamako. In late April, the conflict escalated further. The Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), along with members of Tuareg separatist movements, launched a coordinated attack on the Malian army and its Russian allies, the African Corps (formerly Wagner), which killed the Malian Defence Minister Sadio Camara."

"The rebels seized control of military camps, recaptured the largest northern city of Kidal, and tightened the blockade on Bamako. This latest offensive is part of a long series of rebellions in what the Tuareg call Azawad, an area comprising the regions of Timbuktu, Taoudenit, Kidal, and Gao, which is predominantly populated by Tuareg communities. The present crisis is compounded by the weakening of the Malian state following the 2021 coup and foreign intervention."

"In the absence of any serious effort to address it, instability could spill over across the whole Sahel region. Ever since the country announced independence from France in 1960, Mali's north has seen repeated upheaval as local Tuareg communities have demanded self-determination. Fourteen years ago, Tuareg groups allied with groups affiliated with al-Qaeda launched yet another rebellion."

"They managed to seize several cities in northern Mali, and had it not been for a French military intervention in 2013, they could have marched on Bamako. Two French operations resulted in the weakening of the Tuareg movements and groups affiliated with al-Qaeda. This helped persuade them to participate in negotiations with the government, which ultimately ended with the signing of the Algiers Accords in 2015. One of the most prominent clauses of this agreement was decentralisation in the Azawad region, which gave local leaders more power."

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