The Fourth Successor': Iran's plan for a long war with the US and Israel

"Tehran had spent two decades studying US wars to build a system that could keep fighting even if the capital was bombed, he was describing more than resilience; he was outlining the logic of Iran's defence doctrine. At the centre of that doctrine is what Iranian military thinkers call decentralised mosaic defence a concept built on one core assumption: that in any war with the United States or Israel, Iran may lose senior commanders, key facilities, communications networks and even centralised control, but must still be able to keep fighting."

"The idea is to organise the state's defensive structure into multiple regional and semi-independent layers instead of concentrating power in a single command chain that could be paralysed by a decapitation strike. Under this model, the IRGC, the Basij, regular army units, missile forces, naval assets and local command structures form parts of a distributed system. If one part is hit, others keep functioning. If senior leaders are killed, the chain does not collapse."

"The doctrine has two central aims: to make Iran's command system difficult to dismantle by force, and to make the battlefield itself harder to resolve quickly by turning Iran into a layered defensive structure where distributed decision-making and operational capacity persist despite targeted strikes against centralized leadership and infrastructure."

Iran's defense doctrine, called decentralized mosaic defense, prioritizes operational continuity over territorial protection. Built on two decades of studying US military campaigns, the system organizes defensive structures into multiple semi-independent regional layers rather than concentrating power in a single command chain vulnerable to decapitation strikes. The IRGC, Basij, regular army units, missile forces, naval assets, and local commands form a distributed network where losing senior leaders, key facilities, or communications does not collapse the entire system. This doctrine reflects Iran's strategic assumption that any conflict with the United States or Israel could be prolonged, requiring the military to maintain decision-making capacity and combat effectiveness despite severe losses.

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