Crude oil prices are slipping slightly, while West Texas Intermediate remains above $103 and $110 per barrel. Prices stay high due to geopolitical risk premiums tied to uncertainty around conflict with Iran. A statement on Truth Social said a planned attack would be delayed after requests from Gulf leaders to allow more time for negotiations. Diplomatic efforts are stalled because there is no near-term path to a deal and all sides remain committed to extreme demands. New hardline leadership in Iran makes negotiations harder, with maximalist positions on nuclear and missile programs and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The likely outcome would resemble an Obama-era deal, which would be politically difficult for the Trump administration. Military action may be required, potentially involving broader strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
"Crude oil prices are declining slightly today by around 1%, with West Texas Intermediate crude still holding above $103 and $110 a barrel. Oil prices remain high following Donald Trump's diplomatic manoeuvre on his social media platform, where he said he would delay a planned attack on Iran. However, the lack of a near-term path to a deal to end the war, stalled diplomatic efforts, and the fact that all sides remain committed to their extreme demands mean that geopolitical risk premiums remain baked into the price, keeping the upward trend intact."
"Trump stated on Truth Social that he had ordered a delay of the soon-scheduled attack, following requests from leaders in Gulf nations to allow more time for negotiations. In reality, the negotiation path is ineffective under the current circumstances. The appointment of a new, hardline leadership within the Iranian hierarchy has made negotiations even tougher than before, with the leadership sticking firmly to its maximalist demands regarding its nuclear and missile programs, as well as control over the Strait of Hormuz."
"Given this inflexibility, the most that could be achieved would be a deal similar to the one reached during the Obama administration. For the Trump administration, returning to such a deal would be humiliating, as they did nothing but dismantle the previous nuclear deal and withdraw from it only to end up right back where they started. Therefore, I see yesterday's manoeuvre by Trump as nothing more than an attempt to force energy prices down or to buy time to secure some kind of concession from Iran, which I find unlikely given the current hardline leadership."
"In this regard, we are left with only the option of a military action, which may require much more extensive action than before. For such an operation to be successful, Seth Cropsey, president of the Yorktown Institute, argued in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece that it would require wide-ranging military action against Iranian infrastructure, in"
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