In the Iran war, it's not the oil that's important-it's the water | Fortune

"It's Day 6 of the war with Iran. Israel and Iran continue to exchange bomb attacks. Iran said its navy hit a tanker in the north of the Arabian Gulf. U.K. authorities confirmed the hit. That's significant because the tanker was far from the Strait of Hormuz, which has been the main focus of concern so far. A U.S. submarine torpedoed an Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean and Sri Lankan authorities are retrieving dozens of bodies."

"The war is draining the global supply of Patriot missiles needed by Ukraine for its defence against Russia. Nonetheless, Ukraine said it could offer the U.S. interceptor drones to fend off attacks from Iranian Shahed drones. Italy said it would send air defence equipment to Gulf nations being attacked. Azerbaijan says it was attacked by two Iranian drones. That brings to 17 the number of countries drawn into the conflict so far."

"There is plenty of runway before the [U.S.] economy begins to hit pain points that result in a change in household and business consumption, investment and hiring. Those pain points will not kick in until oil hits approximately $125 a barrel, according to RSM analyst Joe Brusuelas."

Global markets experience a relief rally with S&P 500 futures flat ahead of New York opening, following a 0.78% gain yesterday. Asian and European markets surge strongly, with technology stocks performing exceptionally well. Coinbase rises 15% yesterday and another 1.4% overnight. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions escalate on Day 6 of Iran-Israel conflict, now involving 17 countries including the U.S., U.K., Israel, Iran, and various Gulf nations. Military actions include Iranian navy attacks on tankers, U.S. submarine operations, and drone strikes across multiple countries. The conflict threatens global oil supplies and diverts critical Patriot missile resources from Ukraine. Oil price escalation poses economic risks, with potential pain points emerging if prices reach approximately $125 per barrel, impacting GDP growth, inflation, and employment.

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