Historic 2024 Pact: Russia and North Korea Pledge Mutual Aid Raising Stakes for U.S. in Two Key Regions

"The mutual defense pact between Russia and North Korea is reminiscent of the 1961 treaty between the Soviet Union and North Korea. The 2024 agreement's Article 4 has similar wording to the mid-century agreement (obligating aid if attacked) but lacks the same ironclad guarantee. The treaty could have an impact on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as well as future developments in the Indo-Pacific region."

"In August 1945, Joseph Stalin made good on his pledge to enter the Pacific Theater of World War Two. The Red Army easily defeated the beleaguered Japanese forces in Manchuria in a short but decisive campaign that helped close the Second World War. The Soviet Union installed Kim Il-sung as the leader of North Korea. In 1950, Kim Il-sung launched a surprise attack on South Korea and almost swept the peninsula before allied forces intervened."

Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact on June 19, 2024, marking a shift in bilateral relations. Article 4 mirrors the 1961 Soviet–North Korean treaty by obligating aid if attacked, but omits an ironclad guarantee. Russia faces ammunition shortages in the Ukraine war and seeks supply assistance, while North Korea needs oil and gas that Russia can provide. The treaty could influence the course of the Ukraine conflict and reshape Indo-Pacific security dynamics. Historical ties date to 1945 Soviet intervention in Manchuria and the installation of Kim Il-sung, followed by the 1950 Korean War and Cold War-era Sino-Soviet rivalries.

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