Ethiopia votes amid geopolitical rivalries in Horn of Africa

Ethiopia will hold elections on June 1, 2026 while facing internal security challenges and heightened competition for influence in the Horn of Africa. Regional powers including Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel are seeking influence in a region destabilized by Sudan’s conflict and disputes over the Red Sea. Rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam continues to shape regional politics, including alignments in Sudan’s civil war. Opposition parties are described as fragmented and weak as the election approaches. The government rejects claims that political space is shrinking, citing reforms by the National Election Board of Ethiopia such as digital voter registration and new monitoring systems. More than 50 million voters are registered, with over 10,400 candidates competing federally and regionally. Sudanese officials accuse the UAE of drone strikes launched from Ethiopia, while Ethiopia denies the claims and accuses Sudan of backing armed groups inside Ethiopia.

"Voters in Ethiopia will cast their ballots on June 1, 2026, while the country faces internal security challenges and heightened competition for power in the Horn of Africa. Regional powers like Egypt, the UAE,Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel are pushing for influence in this strategically vital region, already destabilized by Sudan's conflict and disputes over the Red Sea. Analysts say the rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)continues to shape regional politics, including competing alignments in Sudan's civil war."

"Kebour Ghenna, executive director of Initiative Africa and a former opposition candidate, says opposition parties are fragmented and weak as this election approaches. "The Ethiopian elections unfold less as a genuine democratic contest and more as a mechanism for maintaining state legitimacy in a context of weakened opposition, regional instability, and growing external geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa," he told DW in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital."

"The government rejects claims that political space is shrinking. Officials point to reforms by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), such as digital voter registration and new monitoring systems, and say opposition parties are responsible for their own decline. More than 50 million Ethiopians have registered to vote, according to NEBE. Over 10,400 candidates from various political parties and independent candidates are competing at both the federal and regional levels."

"Sudanese officials accused the UAE of launching drone strikes on Khartoum Airport from Ethiopia's Bahir Dar airport. Ethiopia called the claims baseless and accused Sudan of backing armed groups inside Ethiopia. Sudan has repeatedly accused the UAE of backing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Suda"

Read at www.dw.com