"No one can confidently know where this is going for all the reasons I listed then -- as the war has shown, a decision to employ violence without pre-planning for all contingencies sets off an unpredictable chain of events. This said, I sense that the administration is approaching the point where the temptation will be overwhelming to define as victory wherever things stand at the moment."
"The pressure to do that comes from the piling up of second and third order consequences, most of which seem not to have been anticipated. There is closure or clogging of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices and the knock-on pressures in all associated fields - a trend beneficial to oil-rich Russia as its aggression in Ukraine continues."
"The US public's confusion about the war; polling is not conclusive, but it looks like only 4 in 10 Americans think it a good idea and a higher percentage are simply uncertain about the objectives. The MAGA base is not enthused and prominent influencers such as Joe Rogan find it out of line with the president's campaign promises."
Military intervention without comprehensive contingency planning creates unpredictable cascading effects. The conflict has generated multiple unintended consequences: Strait of Hormuz disruptions raise oil prices benefiting Russia, Iranian attacks on Gulf states reduce their conflict enthusiasm, and American public support remains weak with only 40% approval. The MAGA base and influencers question alignment with campaign promises, while 2026 mid-terms approach. Despite these pressures encouraging early victory declarations, significant obstacles remain. The administration has failed to achieve three major stated objectives: eliminating Iranian nuclear material, removing the revolutionary regime, and sparking popular uprising. These unmet goals complicate any exit strategy.
Read at The Cipher Brief
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]