"Despite its historic weight, few anticipate substantive policy breakthroughs. A deescalation of tensions and normalization of the bilateral trade relationship between the two countries, which together comprise over 40% of global GDP, are what business leaders and China watchers I've spoken with expect to see. This will be a meeting big on symbolism, leaning in on the personal relationship-what some have dubbed the "bromance"-between the two leaders."
"That doesn't mean that deals won't be made by Trump and the 17 CEOs travelling with the president, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who was a last-minute addition to the delegation. China is conversant with the Trump playbook, and the president is likely to return to the United States with a list of trade deals in non-strategic sectors that can be totaled as a big dollar figure and paraded as victories."
"Purchase commitments on U.S. commodities-including soybeans, beef, and other agricultural products-as well as the completion of a long-delayed deal for China to buy up to 500 Boeing 737 MAX jets are likely to be among the big wins touted on Air Force One on the way home. The U.S. also wants China to commit to purchases of American coal, oil, and natural gas."
"No big trade policy moves are expected as both sides seek to stabilize the relationship. The one-year trade truce established on the sidelines of the APEC summit in October 2025-in which the U.S. walked back threatened tariff increases and Beijing paused expanded rare-earth export controls-is expected to hold or be extended. Discussions on the formation of a board of trade, a mechanism to boost commerce in non-sensitive areas without compromising either side's national security, will also be moved forw"
A two-day state visit in Beijing marks the first trip by a sitting U.S. president to China in nearly a decade. Expectations center on deescalating tensions and normalizing bilateral trade between two countries that together account for over 40% of global GDP. The meeting is expected to rely heavily on personal rapport between the leaders, often framed as a “bromance.” Business leaders anticipate deals led by a group of 17 CEOs, including commitments for U.S. commodities such as soybeans, beef, coal, oil, and natural gas. Completion of a long-delayed agreement for China to buy up to 500 Boeing 737 MAX jets is also expected. Major trade policy changes are not anticipated as both sides aim to stabilize relations, with a one-year trade truce likely to hold or be extended and further work on a board of trade for non-sensitive commerce.
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