Afghanistan Is Becoming India and Pakistan's Proxy Battlefield-Again

"The recent clashes underscore a simple truth: kinetic escalation along a porous frontier is a multiplier. Airstrikes, artillery duels, and intermittent border closures do not remain local nuisances. They force displacement, interrupt trade and humanitarian access, and create openings for transnational violent actors to regroup and expand. At the same time, high-level diplomatic gestures, like India's reception of a Taliban foreign minister-help normalize engagement without demanding verifiable commitments from Kabul on , human rights, or governance."

"From the anti-Soviet jihad to the 1990s civil war, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) cultivated proxies, trained fighters in madrassas and camps, and hosted Taliban decision-making bodies in Quetta, Peshawar, and Miramshah. By the time I led Signals Intelligence at NDS, the material flows, explosives, trainers, and fighters-were a familiar pattern. As U.S. forces drew down after 2014, Islamabad's public posture shifted; in private and in some diplomatic forums, Pakistan presented the Taliban as a political reality to be accommodated."

Islamabad and Kabul declared a 48-hour ceasefire after days of shelling and cross-border clashes around Spin Boldak/Chaman and Kurram. New Delhi hosted Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, marking the highest-profile Taliban visit to India since 2021. Both events reflect a long-standing India–Pakistan competition that instrumentalizes Afghan territory, institutions, and populations. Kinetic escalation along a porous frontier multiplies harm: airstrikes, artillery duels, and border closures force displacement, interrupt trade and humanitarian access, and create openings for transnational violent actors. Simultaneous diplomatic engagement with the Taliban normalizes the group without securing verifiable commitments on security, human rights, or governance. Pakistan's historical proxy support and transactional accommodation of the Taliban have generated enduring leverage.

Read at The Cipher Brief