Without some change in direction, Iran's regime risks breakdown in civil order

"By night, there is the Iran that danced, celebrated and cried tears of joy at the death of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hoping it marks the end of clerical rule and isolation from the west. By day, there are the mourning crowds gathering in the squares in Tehran and Isfahan demanding retribution and bewailing the loss of their sacred leader."

"The roll call of the dead leadership is extraordinary and growing. Apart from the supreme leader, the dead include Maj Gen Shahid Rezaian, the head of the intelligence organisation of Iran's police command; Lt Gen Seyyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, the chief of staff of the armed forces; Maj Gen Mohammad Pakpour, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); Adm Ali Shamkhani, the adviser to the supreme commander, and Lt Gen Nasirzadeh, the defence minister."

"On the surface, it seems implausible the regime can survive this weight of attrition. The roll call of the dead leadership is extraordinary and growing. Some of these had only been in office for months having being elevated after the previous wave of assassinations during the Israeli assault on Iran in June last year."

Iran is experiencing profound internal division following Ayatollah Khamenei's death. Segments of the population celebrate, viewing this as an opportunity to end clerical rule and isolation from the West, while official mourning crowds demand retribution for their leader. The regime maintains military control through its security apparatus, though the instinct to resist runs deep in Shia Islam and Iranian ideology. The regime has suffered extraordinary losses in military leadership, including the heads of intelligence, armed forces, IRGC, and defense ministry—many recently appointed after previous assassinations during Israeli operations. Iran's weapons stockpiles face strain, and damage to Gulf state relationships appears more severe than physical damage inflicted on targeted US bases. The regime's ability to sustain its current path remains uncertain.

Read at www.theguardian.com