Why the Iranian regime did not collapse after Khamenei's assassination

"The Islamic Republic is not an autocratic regime like in the familiar Arab context, where the entire structure collapses when its head disappears. It is a complex ideological and securitised system, with a religious head, beneath whom there is a network of solid institutions—some constitutional, some security-related, some bureaucratic and economic—all working to preserve the entity itself, not merely to serve the individual."

"The killing of the supreme leader does not automatically erase the state, nor topple the regime simply by virtue of the event; rather, it shifts the crisis from the question of the survival of the head to the question of internal cohesion. The struggle to maintain it is where the real danger lies."

"The Iranian constitution itself was drafted with the spectre of a power vacuum in mind. Article 111 stipulates that a temporary council assumes the powers of leadership when the position becomes vacant, until the Assembly of Experts chooses a new leader as soon as possible."

Iran's Islamic Republic is a complex ideological and securitized system built to withstand the death of its Supreme Leader, contrary to assumptions of immediate regime collapse. Unlike Arab autocracies dependent on a single figure, Iran's structure comprises constitutional, security, bureaucratic, and economic institutions designed to preserve the state itself. The Iranian constitution explicitly addresses power vacuums through Article 111, which establishes a temporary council to assume leadership powers until the Assembly of Experts selects a new Supreme Leader. While Khamenei's killing represents the most significant threat to the Islamic Republic since 1979, the real danger lies not in regime survival but in maintaining internal cohesion among competing institutional interests during the transition period.

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