Who really won Iraq's elections?

"Who will be the prime minister is only one issue, although it is top of mind for incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who had his powers clipped in November by the Federal Supreme Court (FSC), making his government a caretaker. As he scrambles for new alliances to compensate for a fractured electoral bloc, al-Sudani will also need to prove he can steer the country through a complicated domestic and international position."

"He tried to create his political base through an independent electoral list and won big with about 46 out of 329 seats but the FSC ruling sent him back to the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), the alliance that nominated him four years ago and that he was trying to break free from. Now, he loses the advantage of his RDC's win and must submit to the SCF leadership, many of whom do not hold seats in parliament, operating instead as external powerbrokers."

Iraq's new parliament convenes amid a contested post-election environment and questions over leadership and membership. Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had key powers removed by the Federal Supreme Court, rendering his government caretaker. Al-Sudani built an independent electoral list, the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, winning about 46 of 329 seats, but the FSC ruling forced him back into the Shia Coordination Framework and under its external leadership. The SCF must reconcile traditional Shia parties' losses with the gains of Shia parties that have armed wings. Pro-Iran, anti-West armed groups now possess an unusually large parliamentary voice, complicating foreign relations and provoking Shia domestic discontent over Iranian influence.

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