What would prolonged war mean for Sudan?

"Rhetoric surrounding Sudan's ongoing war has escalated with Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, recently announcing that his soldiers were prepared to keep fighting until 2040 if necessary. His remarks came days after his rival and Sudan's army chief and Transitional Sovereign Council head, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, vowed to keep fighting until Sudan was cleansed of the RSF and estimated the war could last until 2033."

"UNDP Sudan Representative Luca Renda cautioned that the longer the war continues, the greater the misery, describing the conflict as the economics of suffering. According to a joint report last month by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Institute for Security Studies, more than 150,000 people have been killed since fighting began in 2023. Nearly 15 million people have been displaced, up to 24 million face food shortages and at least 19 million lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation."

"The report warns that Sudan's state institutions are on the verge of total collapse, with governance paralysed, healthcare and education systems shattered, markets destroyed, and production in agriculture, manufacturing and services severely weakened. The report projects that under a Protracted Conflict scenario with the war lasting until 2030, Sudan's GDP in 2043 would be US$34.5 billion lower than it would be with no war, GDP per capita would fall by roughly $1,700, while more than 60% of the population would be living in extreme poverty."

Rhetoric from Sudan’s rival forces increasingly treats the conflict as a long-term struggle. Rapid Support Forces commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo said his soldiers could keep fighting until 2040. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan vowed to keep fighting until Sudan is cleansed of the RSF and estimated the war could last until 2033. The UNDP warned that longer fighting increases misery and described the conflict as the economics of suffering. A UNDP and Institute for Security Studies report estimated more than 150,000 deaths since fighting began in 2023. Nearly 15 million people have been displaced, up to 24 million face food shortages, and at least 19 million lack safe drinking water and sanitation. State institutions are near total collapse, with governance paralyzed, healthcare and education shattered, markets destroyed, and production severely weakened. Under a protracted conflict scenario lasting to 2030, Sudan’s GDP in 2043 would be US$34.5 billion lower, GDP per capita would drop by about $1,700, and more than 60% would live in extreme poverty.

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